Web app · Social Networking
Outguess
A private predictions club — no money, just who called it
Pose a question to your group, set the deadline, everyone answers with a probability. When the answer is known, Outguess scores the club by Brier and hands out the bragging rights. Free, no account, nothing published.
Stored in your browser only. Nothing you do in the web version is sent to our servers. Clear your browser data and it's gone — so export a backup from the in-app menu if you want to keep it.
This app is a community proposal.
Try the full browser version now. We build the iPhone and Android app once 100 people upvote it.
We'll email you once, when it ships. Unsubscribe anytime.
In your browser
What you can do in Outguess on the web
Groups of friends, not a market
The Couch, the office bracket, the family chat — each group has its own roster, questions and leaderboard.
Pose a question in one sentence
Prompt, category, an optional source link and a resolve-by date; you answer your own question too.
Dial in a probability
A half-dial reads your call against the club average, and the home feed lets you lock in a number without opening the question.
Brier scoring, per group and overall
(probability − outcome)² averaged over settled questions — a permanent 50% shrug scores exactly 0.25.
Club awards
Best forecaster, most overconfident (claimed confidence minus hit rate), sharpest and loudest-wrongest single calls, and your most-asked-about category.
No money, ever
Outguess handles no stakes and runs no market — and every group stays in this browser, exportable as JSON or CSV.
Screens
Every screen, rebuilt for the browser
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1
The Club
Your Brier score, the questions waiting on your call with an inline slider, your groups and what just settled.
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2
Pose a question
Group, prompt, category, source link, deadline and your own opening call, plus the house rules.
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3
Question
The half-dial against the club average, everyone's probability, settle YES or NO, and the post-mortem.
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4
Groups
Every club with its roster of friends, counts of open and settled questions, and quick add.
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5
Group
One club's standings, its open questions and everything it has already settled.
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6
Leaderboard
Every friend ranked by Brier, the awards, what the club argues about, and your own record.
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7
Settings
Your name, the no-money promise, JSON backup, leaderboard CSV, sample data and erase.
Try it with sample data: Loads two clubs — The Couch and an Office bracket — with seven friends, 13 questions across sports, politics, culture, work, weather, money and science, six of them already settled with everyone's probabilities. You can start fresh at any time.
Ready? It's free.
No account, no install, no subscription. Everything you do stays in this browser.
Your say
What should Outguess do? Tell us before we build it.
Tell us what to build next.
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Questions
Is the web version of Outguess free?+
Yes. Every screen is free to use: no subscription, no in-app purchases, no account.
Do I need an account?+
No. Open Outguess and start using it right away. Sign in with Google only if you want to upvote an app, save it to your list, or leave a comment.
Where is my data stored?+
Only in this browser's local storage. Nothing you enter is sent to our servers, so we can't see it, back it up, or restore it. Clearing site data, a private window, or another device starts empty. Export a backup from the in-app menu to keep it.
Is there a Outguess app for iPhone or Android?+
Not yet. Outguess is a community proposal: the browser version is complete, and we build the iPhone and Android app once 100 people upvote it. Upvoters get one email when it ships.