Meet Forecastly — A personal calibration journal. Get better at being right
Forecastly is a calibration training app for people who want to forecast better — not for money, but to know whether their gut is actually right.
Productivity
Forecastly
A personal calibration journal. Get better at being right.
Every feature, from the first launch.
No account, no login, no cloud. Everything runs on your device and works fully offline — nothing in this post is hidden behind a wall.
What Forecastly does
Forecastly is a calibration training app for people who want to forecast better — not for money, but to know whether their gut is actually right. You enter a prediction with a probability ("60% chance the Fed cuts in June"). When the event resolves, you log the outcome. Forecastly computes your Brier score across categories, draws the calibration curve, and shows where your confidence drifts from reality.
What's in v1:
— Pose-a-prediction: ten quick categories (politics, weather, sports, work, household), free-text question, slider for probability, resolution date. — Resolve: when the date arrives, Forecastly nudges you to mark the outcome. — Calibration curve: across all your resolved predictions, the classic 'confidence vs outcome' plot. The diagonal is perfect calibration; the gap shows where you're overconfident or underconfident. — Brier score per category: Tetlock's standard accuracy metric, broken out so you can see if you're better at sports than at politics (most people are). — No money. No betting. No social leaderboard. The app is for you.
Free.
A look inside
Tap any screenshot to open the full-resolution version.
What's inside
- Ten-category question entry — Slider probability + resolution date.
- Resolution nudges — Per-date reminders to log outcomes.
- Calibration curve + Brier — Personal accuracy over time.
- Category breakdown — Per-category accuracy.
Why we built it
The Agentic Economy PDF §3.3: AI agents are 3-5x more profitable than humans on prediction markets. The human edge — calibration — is trainable but rarely practiced. Tetlock's Good Judgment Project showed forecasters can be trained, but consumer practice apps are nonexistent (Metaculus is community-tournament; Good Ju…
What makes it different
Forecastly is the only iOS app that's PURELY personal calibration training. Metaculus is a public-tournament site. Manifold is play-money markets. Good Judgment Open is research-grade web. Forecastly is the daily practice journal — no community, no money, just the curve.
Who it's for
People who have tried every productivity app and bounced off the noise. If you want something calm, fast, and private, this is for you.
In one line: A personal calibration journal. Get better at being right.
Try it
See the Forecastly app page for the full feature list, the info table, and support links.
Use Forecastly, found a bug, or have a feature request? Comments are open below — anonymous is fine.
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